On 7 December, the National Health Commission issued a set of 10 measures that effectively ended China’s zero-covid strategy, 取消以前的要求，如强制集中隔离, compulsory testing, and sweeping lockdowns.
Below we outline the good, the bad, and the uncertain of China’s opening and recap the steps Swedish companies should take to continue to succeed in the post-pandemic Chinese market.
THE GOOD
商务旅行(几乎)恢复正常
对于前往中国的国际商务旅行来说，放宽限制是个好消息. 从1月8日起，北京实施了以下变化:
- 取消对入境旅客的集中检疫要求.
- Scrapped the limitations on the number of international passenger flights and passenger limits (although actual flight numbers will likely increase slowly).
- Resumed the issuance of ordinary visas and residence permits for foreigners (including tourist visa exemptions for short-term travellers).*
随着这些事态的发展，去中国旅行理论上回到了疫情前的“轻松”状态. This means that foreign businesses that have had difficulties with their cross-border communication during the pandemic now have a chance to rebuild their relationships with their China teams and business partners through visits in person. 对于那些希望进入中国市场的公司来说也是如此, 现在有可能再次看到地面的情况.
北京希望在2023年提振经济增长
除了商务旅行，2023年的整体经济状况也将有所改善. As China moves from its stringent Covid controls to a less restricted business and living environment, the central government is looking to get the economic wheels turning and return growth to its pre-pandemic pace.
事实上，对一些企业来说，经济前景似乎充满希望. 短期来看，被压抑的需求将提振零售、餐饮和旅游业等行业. Health and pharmaceutical companies as well as consumer companies in general are also set to benefit from the policy easing.
展望未来，其他行业也可能在2023年得到提振. According to the readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (the Party’s most important economic meeting, during which the top leadership lays out the economic policy agenda for the coming year) China will be more focused on economic growth in 2023 than ever before. 为促进这方面的发展，政府会着重:
- Expanding domestic consumption
- 吸引和利用外资(特别是现代PG电子游戏业)
- Stabilising the property market
- 继续实施“稳健”和“积极”的货币财政政策
- Cutting the tech sector some slack
会议还强调了中国扩大先进技术进口的必要性, key equipment, and energy resources and to boost R&新能源、人工智能、生物制造、量子计算等高新技术领域.
这些发展仍处于规划阶段, 更详细的政策可能会在未来几周或几个月内公布, 尤其是在3月份的两会期间.**
同样值得记住的是，支持中国政府首要任务的行业，如汽车业.g., reducing carbon emissions, improving healthcare, 扩大国内消费市场, and upgrading industrial production, 是否会在2023年及以后继续受益于政策决定.
THE BAD
Despite the plethora of positives, 北京突然转向与病毒共存也带来了自己的挑战, 其中一些可能在短期内对经济复苏产生负面影响.
The unprecedented surge in infections China is currently experiencing could cause manufacturing and supply chain disruptions in the short term. 根据中国国内一些顶级流行病学家的说法, the first wave of infections currently sweeping the nation is likely to peak in February or March and to subside nationwide by June. With this timeline in mind, businesses should prepare for disruptions and formulate plans to mitigate such risks (as well as risks to employee health and workplace safety) until at least mid-year.
THE UNCERTAIN
关于2023年中国经济前景，有很多热门预测.
Several global investment banks and advisory institutions predict a more-than solid GDP growth of around 5 per cent in 2023. While we are not in the growth-predicting business and would love nothing more than a strong Chinese economy in 2023, we have noticed that most such economic forecasts seem to be based largely on pent-up household demand – demand that may or may not materialise. 根据中国央行的季度调查, 第四季度消费者信心指数为61，创历史新低.8 per cent of survey respondents saying they planned to save more over the next three months (options were to save, consume, or invest more).*** With this in mind, 对于依赖于被压抑的家庭需求的最乐观的预测，我们应该谨慎解读.
Beyond soft demand, there are structural headwinds to China’s economic recovery that have little or nothing to do with the pandemic. 其中包括陷入危机的房地产行业, 迅速老龄化的人口和不断减少的劳动力, 气候变化和日益复杂的全球环境. While some of these issues could be handled with short-term solutions to secure a good headline GDP growth figure in 2023, it is worth remembering that these measures will have negative knock-on effects on China's economic outlook at some point in the future.
PREPARING POST-PANDEMIC STRATEGIES
Under these circumstances, it is imperative that Swedish companies are aware of the challenges facing the Chinese economy as well as the changes happening in the country’s business environment. Due to the changing reality, 2020年前制定的中国战略可能不再有效. Companies not only need to rethink how they view their operations in China and how they engage with Chinese customers and partners, 但它们也需要在亚太地区的背景下考虑中国及其在华业务的角色, 鉴于地区地缘政治紧张局势和经济不确定性.
Read more about the three concrete steps that companies and management teams can take to recalibrate their strategies to be better prepared for the new environment and succeed in the China market in our report 驾驭不确定性-在中国战略中建立弹性和敏捷性.
In the meantime, do not hesitate to reach out to us at Business Sweden to learn more about the latest developments in China’s reopening, 2023年的经济前景及其对企业的影响.
* 根据疫情形势和双边关切，中国和中国之间的签证发放 other countries can still be restricted.
** 两会通常在三月初举行, 但2023年的会议日期仍未公布.
*** Before the onset of the p此外，在2019年第四季度，选择“节省更多”选项的受访者比例为45%.7%.
